Can we have an honest conversation about the differences in the NFL overtime and the college overtime? (I know we can’t, but can we try?)
Both the college and the NFL overtime system are currently under fire for recent events.
For the NFL, the Patriots again took an overtime kickoff and scored, there is a fan uprising over the “unfairness” of it. For the NCAA, the governing body says it’s open to changes to prevent games from going into multiple overtime games like LSU and Texas A&M’s 7 overtime contest in November. If any changes will be made to either system is yet to be determined. However, the debate rages with the fans.
For several years now, people have debated over which system is better and which system is more “fair” (however we measure that). As I’ve a fan of the college overtime system since the early 80s, I have followed some of these debates with interest, often amazed at the misinformation spread in these debates and accepted without pause. As I’ve collected a large share of college football overtime information including details of over 2,600 college football overtime games, I have more than average knowledge on the subject.
Among the things I want to address myths regarding the advantage the coin toss has in the college system. There are myths at both extremes, with people believing that there is no advantage in college (“because both teams get the ball”) and the widely held belief that the college system favors the coin toss winner by a much large margin than the pro game. The winning percentage of coin toss winners in college and pro is very similar (53.89% for in college FBS games and 54.58% for the new NFL system) but you constantly see people take a stand that one system is much fairer than the other. Of course, “fair” to some people means both teams having the ball, which is a valid point of view, but we’ll get into that later.
Given that there have only been 120 NFL games using the new system, which started in 2010 for the playoffs and 2012 in the regular season, it seemed pretty simple to gather the information I needed to assess how each system compares to the other. I used the game finder queries at pro-football-reference.com along with their play-by-play logs. Before I get into the results, I want to address a few common things I’ve seen people say which I feel stifle debate, rather than enhance it.
A lot of the debates I’ve followed discussion gets bogged down in people engaging in hyperbole, “facts” seemingly out of the blue, and pointless observations. Before I get down to the facts in this case, I want to give examples of some of those.
Pointless Observations
Every time a tie happens in the NFL, someone opines that the NFL needs to change to the college overtime system. This comment is pointless, as the NFL system is equally capable of breaking a tie as the college system is, it’s just that the NFL limits the length of the overtime and calls it a tie at that point. It seems unlikely that the NFL is going to want to have 7+ overtime games like has happened in college so it would have to put a cap on that system as well and you’d still have ties. I don’t see the NFL completely changing the system to end up with the same problem. I’m not saying that the NFL wouldn’t benefit from going to the college system, but just saying they should change without giving what the benefits or drawbacks are is a pointless statement.
Hyperbole
Every time a major NFL games has the coin toss winner score on the first drive you see comments that run along the line of “the game was decided by a coin toss”. What does that even mean? If the coin toss decided the game, why even play the overtime, just toss the coin. Given that the coin toss loser has won nearly half the games, it clearly doesn’t decide the game. When people who throw this comment out bother to explain what they mean, they either actually believe that the toss winners win most games, or they are upset that the kicking team never got the ball. The first school of thought is nonsense, while the second is a valid point of view worth discussion. When people use the generic “decided by a coin toss” line, you don’t know if they are using a throwaway line or have a point worth exploring.
Facts From Nowhere
The final thing I want to address is the practice that some people have of just quoting some “facts” without giving the source or the context of it. While there are many examples of this, I will focus on this gem from Ross Tucker which, at last check, got over 5,100 retweets and over 6,800 likes. The tweet was as follows:
“Overtime coin toss winner winning % NFL: 52.7% CFB: 54.9% Please RT for the sake of humanity.”
The first observation I will make is that he made no point at all, which might have bailed him out from blowing both “facts”. If his point was that the NFL coin toss is not way out of line, precise numbers aren’t necessary. If his point was college is more out of line than the NFL, than he got that wrong because that’s not really the case. However, let’s focus on where the numbers came from.
I didn’t have to research were he got the 54.9%. This came from a study done 12 years ago by Peter A. Rosen and Rick L. Wilson titled “An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games”. While the study was not 100% accurate (no study of this scope ever is), it did an excellent job of breaking things down. I have two issues in using this information without giving the source, one minor and one major. The minor one is that they were not tracking the “coin toss winner”, as stated, but the team who went second. Though the two numbers are similar, I prefer people to be accurate in their statements. The major problem I have is that the study is 12 years old, which is certainly information that would seem relevant if you’re giving a “fact”. It’s as if we are to believe these numbers are static and never change, and while the current percentage is similar these numbers fluctuate over time, as I will address.
Figuring out where the NFL number came from took a little more effort. Eventually, I figured it must have come from Mike Sando who gave this tweet after the Patriots/Chiefs games. He seems to have gotten it from somewhere, but I couldn’t determine where it came from.
He states the record of the coin toss winner is 56-50-7 since 2012. This does not match my research, and I’m confident that the mistake is not mine. First of all, Pro Football Reference, shows 118 overtime games since 2012, so unless they mistakenly put in 5 extra games, complete with play-by-plays for overtime, than 56-50-7 cannot be right. Calculating the game-by-game records, at no point in time was the record of the “coin toss winner” 56-50-7. I do see that after October 21, 2018, the record of teams receiving the overtime kickoff was 56-50-7, so it’s probably that the information is old and again not the “coin toss winner”. Not every “coin toss winner” has elected to receive as this research apparently assumes. In college, it’s a minor difference, but since selecting which goal to defend can be a strategic advantage, as I’ll get into later, it seems important to me to correctly label it. Since these numbers got repeated many, many times, that they accepted as absolute fact shows how getting the numbers right can move the debate along properly rather than stifling it.
Why You Should Not Trust The NFL Numbers
There have only been 120 NFL games using the newer overtime system. With that little data, the percentage can change quickly over just a few games. Over the last 40 games, the winning percentage of coin toss winners has range from as high as 57.74% to 53.24%. To show how unreliable small amounts of games can be, I will focus on another college study.
In 2013, Kevin Rudy did this analysis of college football overtime. While Rosen and Wilson focused on teams that played defense last in the first overtime period, Rudy calculated the winning percentage of teams that played defense last in the final overtime period. His study was from the start of the 2008 season until October of 2013, just over 5 years. Given that he just kind of decided to do this one day, the study had some data problems. He had 156 games in the study, 3 of which should not have been counted and he missed 31 others over that period. Still, it works as a random dataset of 156 games.
Among his determinations were that home teams won 56% of their overtime games and teams that played defense last won 61.5% of those games. These were mostly accurate for his dataset, but are actually quite a bit off the all-time numbers and even the period he studies.
The actual winning percentage of home teams over the period studied was 51.7%. The reason he missed so badly was that most of the games he missed, the visiting team won. All-time in FBS overtime games, the home team has won 52.4%. He wasn’t wrong in his dataset, but his dataset was so far off the norm that his conclusion was an erroneous one.
The actual winning percentage of the team playing defense last in the final overtime over that period was 63.59%, even higher than what he found. However, had he done his study over the 5 previous years, he would have come up with a winning percentage of 47.40%, a losing record. All-time, that percentage is 53.35%
I often see quoted that the rate of teams winning the toss in college is 60%, and it’s usually because the numbers from this study has stuck in some people’s head. If he had come up with the actual percentage over the period, the number quoted would now even be higher, but if the study had been done of the 5 previous years, the narrative would have been the disadvantage of losing the toss.
Why are the percentages so different? Either the style of play changed drastically, or the dataset is too small to give an accurate picture. Plus, the NFL percentage is still changing at a regular rate ranging from a high of 57.74% over the last 40 games to a low of 53.24%. Over the last 7 games, it has risen a full percentage point. More than likely dataset is too small since we only have 120 NFL games to measure the new NFL system with.
Coin Toss Comparison
If you’ve bothered to read everything so far, you understand that there are a lot of ways to look at the college system. There are the ones mentioned and a few more besides so it would not be hard to come up with a number to fit a wide variety of narratives. Confusing things farther is the fact that one team gets to choose “defense, offense or end of field” in every single overtime period, not just the first one. So while games usually go with one team on offense first in the first period, than the other in the second and so on, it doesn’t always happen that way. Probably the only true comparison to the NFL would be to take the winning percentage of the teams that won the coin toss, so I’ll start there.
In the 120 games the NFL has played with their new overtime system (field goal on a first drive doesn’t end the game), 62 have been won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss and 7 games ended in a tie. A 62-51-7 record computes to a winning percentage of 54.58% (if you count ties as half win/half loss). In the 746 overtime games involving FBS teams, the toss winner won 402 and the toss loser won 344. A 402-344 record computes to a winning percentage of 53.89%. If we wanted to do both since 2012, the year the NFL started the new system in the year the NFL started the new system in the regular season, the NFL would be 60-51-7 (53.81%) and FBS would be 135-124 (52.12%).
If we want to ignore the toss winner and choices and simply go by who received the overtime kickoff in the NFL and who played defense last in FBS college games (the most common choices), the percentages are slightly different. In the 120 NFL games, you’d get 61-52-7 (53.75%), in college you’d get 406-340 (54.42%), or 59-52-7 (52.97%) and 136-123 (52.51%) since 2012.
All-time (NFL New System):
| League | Coin Toss | Common Choice |
| NFL | 62-51-7 (54.58%) | 61-52-7 (53.75%) |
| FBS | 402-344 (53.89%) | 406-340 (54.42%) |
Since 2012:
| League | Coin Toss | Common Choice |
| NFL | 60-51-7 (53.81%) | 59-52-7 (52.97%) |
| FBS | 135-124 (52.12%) | 136-123 (52.51%) |
If nothing else, the numbers show that those claiming the team winning the coin toss in the college system wins far more then the NFL are way off base. The numbers don’t seem to show that either system offers a much higher advantage to coin toss winner. What we see is that there is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but not really a large one in both college and pro.
College Division Breakdown
Another interesting aspect of the college game is that the defense last strategy shows up to be a bigger advantage at the top level of the game than it is at other levels. While the team going second in the first overtime does win 54.42% of their games, in non-FBS college overtime games, the team going second wins 51.48% of their games (of the games I have).
| Division | Def First First Per | Def First Last Per |
| FBS | 54.42% | 53.35 |
| FCS | 52.03% | 53.38% |
| Division II | 50.10% | 56.21% |
| Division III | 51.07% | 52.40% |
| NAIA | 58.10% | 53.33% |
| All | 52.36% | 53.44%
|
It’s interesting that the higher quality teams seem to take advantage of playing defense first more than the lower quality of teams do. This could be an indication that if the NFL were to pick up the college system, the advantage might be higher for the coin toss winner than what we have in college. However, the NAIA numbers might contradict those numbers, although I do only have 210 NAIA overtime game results, so we probably need more data there.
The most interesting thing I found in this information is the division II numbers that have the defense first teams winning a higher percentage of games in multiple overtime games. The teams who played defense last in the first overtime, won over 60% of the games that ended in 2 periods. Of the 13 games that went 4 overtimes, 10 games were won by the team playing defense first.
Further College Breakdown
To get an idea of how the college overtime flows, I have some further breakdowns. Since the division stats very and the FBS level is closest to the NFL, I’ll just give games involving FBS teams.
Games: 746
Multiple Overtime Games: 252 (33.78% of the games)
Periods: 1148 (1.54 per game)
Drives: 2292 (3.07 per game)
Points scored by the offense on each drive:
| Points | Drives | Pct
|
| 0 | 616 | 26.88% |
| 3 | 539 | 23.52% |
| 6 | 347 | 15.14% |
| 7 | 720 | 31.41% |
| 8 | 70 | 3.05% |
Win/Loss Record By Periods Of The Team On Defense First:
| Period | Wins | Losses | Pct |
| 1 | 406 | 340 | 54.42% |
| 2 | 118 | 134 | 46.83% |
| 3 | 52 | 48 | 52.00% |
| 4 | 14 | 14 | 50.00% |
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 54.55% |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 60.00% |
Win/Loss Record Of The Team On Offense First, By Points Scored In First Period:
| Points | Wins | Losses | Pct |
| 7 | 242 | 97 | 71.39% |
| 6 | 11 | 12 | 47.83% |
| 3 | 77 | 134 | 36.49% |
| 0 | 10 | 163 | 5.78%
|
The first thing that really stands out here is the winning percentage of the team that played defense first in the second overtime. I’ll let others speculate on why that might be. The other is the winning percentage of teams scoring 7 points when on offense first in the first overtime. Even though there seems to be a disadvantage to going on offense first, teams that score 7 still win almost 3/4ths of the games.
NFL Coin Toss Info
Of the 120 NFL overtime games using the new system, 62 were won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss, 7 were ties. Calculating the ties as half wins/half losses, that comes to a 54.48% winning percentage. If we toss out the ties, the percentage becomes 54.86%. Clearly, the people that think there’s a huge advantage to winning the toss, aren’t looking at the data. The table below give the game-by-game breakdown.
| Date | Home | Away | RecRec | RecPct | RecRes | TossRec | TossPct | TossRes |
| 01-08-2012 | Denver Broncos | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 1-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 01-22-2012 | San Francisco 49ers | New York Giants | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 09-09-2012 | Minnesota Vikings | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 3-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 09-23-2012 | Tennessee Titans | Detroit Lions | 4-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 4-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 09-23-2012 | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | 5-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 5-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 09-23-2012 | New Orleans Saints | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 6-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 09-30-2012 | Arizona Cardinals | Miami Dolphins | 7-0-0 | 100.00% | W | 7-0-0 | 100.00% | W |
| 10-14-2012 | Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit Lions | 7-1-0 | 87.50% | L | 7-1-0 | 87.50% | L |
| 10-14-2012 | Arizona Cardinals | Buffalo Bills | 8-1-0 | 88.89% | W | 8-1-0 | 88.89% | W |
| 10-21-2012 | Oakland Raiders | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-2-0 | 80.00% | L | 8-2-0 | 80.00% | L |
| 10-21-2012 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | 9-2-0 | 81.82% | W | 9-2-0 | 81.82% | W |
| 10-28-2012 | Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | 10-2-0 | 83.33% | W | 10-2-0 | 83.33% | W |
| 11-11-2012 | San Francisco 49ers | Saint Louis Rams | 10-2-1 | 80.77% | T | 10-2-1 | 80.77% | T |
| 11-12-2012 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Kansas City Chiefs | 10-3-1 | 75.00% | L | 10-3-1 | 75.00% | L |
| 11-18-2012 | Carolina 33333333333333Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 11-3-1 | 76.67% | W | 11-3-1 | 76.67% | W |
| 11-18-2012 | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12-3-1 | 78.13% | W | 12-3-1 | 78.13% | W |
| 11-18-2012 | Dallas Cowboys | Cleveland Browns | 13-3-1 | 79.41% | W | 13-3-1 | 79.41% | W |
| 11-22-2012 | Detroit Lions | Houston Texans | 13-4-1 | 75.00% | L | 13-4-1 | 75.00% | L |
| 11-25-2012 | San Diego Chargers | Baltimore Ravens | 13-5-1 | 71.05% | L | 13-5-1 | 71.05% | L |
| 12-02-2012 | Chicago Bears | Seattle Seahawks | 14-5-1 | 72.50% | W | 14-5-1 | 72.50% | W |
| 12-02-2012 | Saint Louis Rams | San Francisco 49ers | 15-5-1 | 73.81% | W | 15-5-1 | 73.81% | W |
| 12-09-2012 | Washington Redskins | Baltimore Ravens | 15-6-1 | 70.45% | L | 15-6-1 | 70.45% | L |
| 12-16-2012 | Dallas Cowboys | Pittsburgh Steelers | 15-7-1 | 67.39% | L | 15-7-1 | 67.39% | L |
| 12-23-2012 | Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | 15-8-1 | 64.58% | L | 15-8-1 | 64.58% | L |
| 01-12-2013 | Denver Broncos | Baltimore Ravens | 16-8-1 | 66.00% | W | 16-8-1 | 66.00% | W |
| 09-15-2013 | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | 17-8-1 | 67.31% | W | 17-8-1 | 67.31% | W |
| 09-29-2013 | Houston Texans | Seattle Seahawks | 17-9-1 | 64.81% | L | 17-9-1 | 64.81% | L |
| 10-13-2013 | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | 18-9-1 | 66.07% | W | 18-9-1 | 66.07% | W |
| 10-20-2013 | New York Jets | New England Patriots | 18-10-1 | 63.79% | L | 18-10-1 | 63.79% | L |
| 10-31-2013 | Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | 19-10-1 | 65.00% | W | 19-10-1 | 65.00% | W |
| 11-03-2013 | Washington Redskins | San Diego Chargers | 20-10-1 | 66.13% | W | 20-10-1 | 66.13% | W |
| 11-03-2013 | Seattle Seahawks | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 20-11-1 | 64.06% | L | 20-11-1 | 64.06% | L |
| 11-10-2013 | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | 20-12-1 | 62.12% | L | 20-12-1 | 62.12% | L |
| 11-17-2013 | Chicago Bears | Baltimore Ravens | 20-13-1 | 60.29% | L | 20-13-1 | 60.29% | L |
| 11-24-2013 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | 20-13-2 | 60.00% | T | 20-13-2 | 60.00% | T |
| 11-24-2013 | New England Patriots | Denver Broncos | 20-14-2 | 58.33% | L | 21-13-2 | 61.11% | W |
| 12-01-2013 | Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | 20-15-2 | 56.76% | L | 21-14-2 | 59.46% | L |
| 12-01-2013 | Buffalo Bills | Atlanta Falcons | 20-16-2 | 55.26% | L | 21-15-2 | 57.89% | L |
| 12-15-2013 | Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals | 20-17-2 | 53.85% | L | 21-16-2 | 56.41% | L |
| 12-22-2013 | Detroit Lions | New York Giants | 21-17-2 | 55.00% | W | 22-16-2 | 57.50% | W |
| 12-29-2013 | San Diego Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | 22-17-2 | 56.10% | W | 23-16-2 | 58.54% | W |
| 09-07-2014 | Chicago Bears | Buffalo Bills | 22-18-2 | 54.76% | L | 23-17-2 | 57.14% | L |
| 09-07-2014 | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | 22-19-2 | 53.49% | L | 23-18-2 | 55.81% | L |
| 09-21-2014 | Seattle Seahawks | Denver Broncos | 23-19-2 | 54.55% | W | 24-18-2 | 56.82% | W |
| 10-05-2014 | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 24-19-2 | 55.56% | W | 25-18-2 | 57.78% | W |
| 10-05-2014 | Dallas Cowboys | Houston Texans | 24-20-2 | 54.35% | L | 25-19-2 | 56.52% | L |
| 10-12-2014 | Cincinnati Bengals | Carolina Panthers | 24-20-3 | 54.26% | T | 25-19-3 | 56.38% | T |
| 10-26-2014 | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | Minnesota Vikings | 24-21-3 | 53.13% | L | 25-20-3 | 55.21% | L |
| 10-27-2014 | Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | 25-21-3 | 54.08% | W | 26-20-3 | 56.12% | W |
| 11-09-2014 | New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers | 25-22-3 | 53.00% | L | 26-21-3 | 55.00% | L |
| 12-07-2014 | Minnesota Vikings | New York Jets | 25-23-3 | 51.96% | L | 26-3322-3 | 53.92% | L |
| 12-20-2014 | San Francisco 49ers | San Diego Chargers | 25-24-3 | 50.96% | L | 26-23-3 | 52.88% | L |
| 01-18-2015 | Seattle Seahawks | Green Bay Packers | 26-24-3 | 51.89% | W | 27-23-3 | 53.77% | W |
| 09-13-2015 | Saint Louis Rams | Seattle Seahawks | 27-24-3 | 52.78% | W | 28-23-3 | 54.63% | W |
| 10-01-2015 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | 27-25-3 | 51.82% | L | 28-24-3 | 53.64% | L |
| 10-04-2015 | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | 27-26-3 | 50.89% | L | 28-25-3 | 52.68% | L |
| 10-04-2015 | New Orleans Saints | Dallas Cowboys | 28-26-3 | 51.75% | W | 29-25-3 | 53.51% | W |
| 10-11-2015 | Atlanta Falcons | Washington Redskins | 28-27-3 | 50.86% | L | 29-26-3 | 52.59% | L |
| 10-11-2015 | Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | 28-28-3 | 50.00% | L | 29-27-3 | 51.69% | L |
| 10-11-2015 | Cincinnati Bengals | Seattle Seahawks | 28-29-3 | 49.17% | L | 29-28-3 | 50.83% | L |
| 10-18-2015 | Cleveland Browns | Denver Broncos | 29-29-3 | 50.00% | W | 30-28-3 | 51.64% | W |
| 10-18-2015 | Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | 30-29-3 | 50.81% | W | 31-28-3 | 52.42% | W |
| 11-01-2015 | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 31-29-3 | 51.59% | W | 32-28-3 | 53.17% | W |
| 11-02-2015 | Carolina Panthers | Indianapolis Colts | 31-30-3 | 50.78% | L | 32-29-3 | 52.34% | L |
| 11-08-2015 | New Orleans Saints | Tennessee Titans | 32-30-3 | 51.54% | W | 33-29-3 | 53.08% | W |
| 11-08-2015 | Minnesota Vikings | Saint Louis Rams | 32-31-3 | 50.76% | L | 34-29-3 | 53.79% | W |
| 11-08-2015 | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | 33-31-3 | 51.49% | W | 35-29-3 | 54.48% | W |
| 11-29-2015 | Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | 33-32-3 | 50.74% | L | 35-30-3 | 53.68% | L |
| 12-06-2015 | Chicago Bears | San Francisco 49ers | 34-32-3 | 51.45% | W | 36-30-3 | 54.35% | W |
| 12-06-2015 | New York Giants | New York Jets | 35-32-3 | 52.14% | W | 37-30-3 | 55.00% | W |
| 12-24-2015 | Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers | 36-32-3 | 52.82% | W | 38-30-3 | 55.63% | W |
| 12-27-2015 | New York Jets | New England Patriots | 37-32-3 | 53.47% | W | 38-31-3 | 54.86% | L |
| 12-28-2015 | Denver Broncos | Cincinnati Bengals | 38-32-3 | 54.11% | W | 39-31-3 | 55.48% | W |
| 01-03-2016 | San Francisco 49ers | Saint Louis Rams | 39-32-3 | 54.73% | W | 40-31-3 | 56.08% | W |
| 01-16-2016 | Arizona Cardinals | Green Bay Packers | 40-32-3 | 55.33% | W | 41-31-3 | 56.67% | W |
| 09-11-2016 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Diego Chargers | 41-32-3 | 55.92% | W | 42-31-3 | 57.24% | W |
| 09-25-2016 | Miami Dolphins | Cleveland Browns | 42-32-3 | 56.49% | W | 43-31-3 | 57.79% | W |
| 10-16-2016 | Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | 42-33-3 | 55.77% | L | 43-32-3 | 57.05% | L |
| 10-23-2016 | Atlanta Falcons | San Diego Chargers | 42-34-3 | 55.06% | L | 43-33-3 | 56.33% | L |
| 10-23-2016 | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | 42-34-4 | 55.00% | T | 43-33-4 | 56.25% | T |
| 10-30-2016 | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | Oakland Raiders | 43-34-4 | 55.56% | W | 44-33-4 | 56.79% | W |
| 10-30-2016 | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | 44-34-4 | 56.10% | W | 45-33-4 | 57.32% | W |
| 10-30-2016 | Cincinnati Bengals | Washington Redskins | 44-34-5 | 56.02% | T | 45-33-5 | 57.23% | T |
| 11-06-2016 | Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | 45-34-5 | 56.55% | W | 46-33-5 | 57.74% | W |
| 11-27-2016 | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | 45-35-5 | 55.88% | L | 46-34-5 | 57.06% | L |
| 12-11-2016 | San Francisco 49ers | New York Jets | 45-36-5 | 55.23% | L | 46-35-5 | 56.40% | L |
| 12-24-2016 | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | 45-37-5 | 54.60% | L | 46-36-5 | 55.75% | L |
| 01-01-2017 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | 45-38-5 | 53.98% | L | 46-37-5 | 55.11% | L |
| 02-05-2017 | New England Patriots | Atlanta Falcons | 46-38-5 | 54.49% | W | 47-37-5 | 55.62% | W |
| 09-17-2017 | Indianapolis Colts | Arizona Cardinals | 46-39-5 | 53.89% | L | 47-38-5 | 55.00% | L |
| 09-24-2017 | Chicago Bears | Pittsburgh Steelers | 47-39-5 | 54.40% | W | 48-38-5 | 55.49% | W |
| 09-24-2017 | Green Bay Packers | Cincinnati Bengals | 47-40-5 | 53.80% | L | 48-39-5 | 54.89% | L |
| 10-01-2017 | New York Jets | Jacksonville Jaguars | 47-41-5 | 53.23% | L | 48-40-5 | 54.30% | L |
| 10-01-2017 | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | 47-42-5 | 52.66% | L | 48-41-5 | 53.72% | L |
| 10-08-2017 | Indianapolis Colts | San Francisco 49ers | 48-42-5 | 53.16% | W | 49-41-5 | 54.21% | W |
| 10-15-2017 | Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | 49-42-5 | 53.65% | W | 50-41-5 | 54.69% | W |
| 10-22-2017 | Cleveland Browns | Tennessee Titans | 49-43-5 | 53.09% | L | 50-42-5 | 54.12% | L |
| 11-12-2017 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Chargers | 50-43-5 | 53.57% | W | 51-42-5 | 54.59% | W |
| 11-19-2017 | New York Giants | Kansas City Chiefs | 50-44-5 | 53.03% | L | 51-43-5 | 54.04% | L |
| 11-19-2017 | New Orleans Saints | Washington Redskins | 50-45-5 | 52.50% | L | 51-44-5 | 53.50% | L |
| 12-03-2017 | Green Bay Packers | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | 51-45-5 | 52.97% | W | 52-44-5 | 53.96% | W |
| 12-10-2017 | Cleveland Browns | Green Bay Packers | 51-46-5 | 52.45% | L | 52-45-5 | 53.43% | L |
| 12-10-2017 | Buffalo Bills | Indianapolis Colts | 52-46-5 | 52.91% | W | 53-45-5 | 53.88% | W |
| 09-09-2018 | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | 52-46-6 | 52.88% | T | 53-45-6 | 53.85% | T |
| 09-16-2018 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | 52-46-7 | 52.86% | T | 53-45-7 | 53.81% | T |
| 09-23-2018 | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | 53-46-7 | 53.30% | W | 54-45-7 | 54.25% | W |
| 09-30-2018 | Tennessee Titans | Philadelphia Eagles | 53-47-7 | 52.80% | L | 54-46-7 | 53.74% | L |
| 09-30-2018 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | 53-48-7 | 52.31% | L | 54-47-7 | 53.24% | L |
| 09-30-2018 | Oakland Raiders | Cleveland Browns | 54-48-7 | 52.75% | W | 55-47-7 | 53.67% | W |
| 10-07-2018 | Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | 55-48-7 | 53.18% | W | 56-47-7 | 54.09% | W |
| 10-07-2018 | Houston Texans | Dallas Cowboys | 55-49-7 | 52.70% | L | 56-48-7 | 53.60% | L |
| 10-14-2018 | Miami Dolphins | Chicago Bears | 56-49-7 | 53.13% | W | 57-48-7 | 54.02% | W |
| 10-21-2018 | Tampa Bay Buccanneers | Cleveland Browns | 56-50-7 | 52.65% | L | 57-49-7 | 53.54% | L |
| 12-02-2018 | New York Giants | Chicago Bears | 57-50-7 | 53.07% | W | 58-49-7 | 53.95% | W |
| 12-09-2018 | Kansas City Chiefs | Baltimore Ravens | 58-50-7 | 53.48% | W | 59-49-7 | 54.35% | W |
| 12-09-2018 | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | 59-50-7 | 53.88% | W | 60-49-7 | 54.74% | W |
| 12-16-2018 | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | 59-51-7 | 53.42% | L | 60-50-7 | 54.27% | L |
| 12-23-2018 | New York Jets | Green Bay Packers | 60-51-7 | 53.81% | W | 61-50-7 | 54.66% | W |
| 01-20-2019 | New Orleans Saints | Los Angeles Raiders | 60-52-7 | 53.36% | L | 61-51-7 | 54.20% | L |
| 01-20-2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | New England Patriots | 61-52-7 | 53.75% | W | 62-51-7 | 54.58% | W |
Included is a column for the record of teams taking the opening kickoff as well, which differs by one game.
NFL Drive Breakdown
The first thing I want to look at is the result of the first drive by both the team taking the kickoff. The following chart shows a breakdown of the result of the first drive of overtime and the record with each result. Also, I included just regular season results as well.
| Overall | Times | Record | Pct | Reg Season | Times | Record | Pct |
| TD | 24 | 24-0-0 | 20.00% | TD | 19 | 19-0-0 | 16.96% |
| FG | 22 | 13-6-3 | 18.33% | FG | 22 | 13-6-3 | 19.64% |
| Punt | 49 | 18-28-3 | 40.83% | Punt | 47 | 16-28-3 | 41.96% |
| Turnover | 18 | 4-14-0 | 15.00% | Turnover | 17 | 4-13-0 | 15.18% |
| 4 Down Fail | 3 | 0-3-0 | 2.50% | 4 Down Fail | 3 | 0-3-0 | 2.68% |
| Missed FG | 4 | 2-1-1 | 3.33% | Missed FG | 4 | 2-1-1 | 3.57% |
| Plays | 889 | 7.41 | Plays | 839 | 7.49 |
Breakdown for the second drive of overtime:
| Overall | Times | Record | Pct | Reg Season | Times | Record | Pct |
| TD | 9 | 9-0-0 | 9.38% | TD | 9 | 9-0-0 | 9.68% |
| FG | 34 | 30-1-3 | 35.42% | FG | 33 | 19-1-3 | 35.48% |
| Punt | 31 | 10-18-3 | 32.29% | Punt | 29 | 10-16-3 | 31.18% |
| Turnover | 6 | 1-5-0 | 6.25% | Turnover | 6 | 1-5-0 | 6.45% |
| 4 Down Fail | 9 | 0-9-0 | 9.38% | 4 Down Fail | 9 | 0-9-0 | 9.68% |
| Missed FG | 7 | 2-4-1 | 7.29% | Missed FG | 7 | 2-4-1 | 7.53% |
| Plays | 627 | 6.53 | Plays | 611 | 6.57 |
Breakdown of second drive after a field goal:
| Overall | Times | Record | Pct | Reg Season | Times | Record | Pct |
| TD | 3 | 3-0-0 | 13.64% | TD | 3 | 3-0-0 | 17.65% |
| FG | 7 | 3-1-3 | 31.82% | FG | 7 | 3-1-3 | 41.18% |
| Punt | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% | Punt | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% |
| Turnover | 2 | 0-2-0 | 9.09% | Turnover | 2 | 0-2-0 | 11.76% |
| 4 Down Fail | 9 | 0-9-0 | 40.91% | 4 Down Fail | 9 | 0-9-0 | 52.94% |
| Missed FG | 1 | 0-1-0 | 4.55% | Missed FG | 1 | 0-1-0 | 5.88% |
| Plays | 184 | 8.36 | Plays | 184 | 8.36 |
Breakdown of second drive after a turnover:
| Overall | Times | Record | Pct | Reg Season | Times | Record | Pct |
| TD | 3 | 3-0-0 | 0.00% | TD | 3 | 3-0-0 | 17.65% |
| FG | 9 | 9-0-0 | 50.00% | FG | 8 | 8-0-0 | 47.06% |
| Punt | 4 | 1-3-0 | 22.22% | Punt | 4 | 1-3-0 | 23.53% |
| Turnover | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% | Turnover | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% |
| 4 Down Fail | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% | 4 Down Fail | 0 | 0-0-0 | 0.00% |
| Missed FG | 2 | 1-1-0 | 11.11% | Missed FG | 2 | 1-1-0 | 11.76% |
| Plays | 79 | 4.65 | Plays | 74 | 4.35 |
First, let’s focus on the obvious. Teams receiving the kickoff have scored on 20% of those drives, giving them immediate victory. On top of that, 18.33% have scored a field goal on the opening drive and ended up winning 65.91% of those. That means teams scoring on the first drive have won 83.70% of their games. Clearly, this is a big advantage. As such, you might wonder why teams receiving the kickoff win under 55% of their games. These numbers also show us some other things.
While people rightfully focus on the advantage of receiving the overtime kickoff, the advantages of being the kickoff team are never mentioned. The first thing to mention is the 18 times that the team receiving the kickoff has turned the ball over. When a team starts with the ball deep in their own end and turns the ball over, it almost always ends in a score, which would end the game in overtime. The average field position after the receiving team turns the ball over is the opponents’ 45 yard line. The average number of plays that occur before these turnovers is 3.44, with the turnover occurring in the first 3 plays 13 times.
Another advantage is the second team gets better field position. The average starting field position of the team receiving the kickoff is their own 23 yard line. The average starting field position of the kicking team after a stop or a field goal is their own 31. While 8 yards isn’t a huge advantage, it’s also noteworthy that the kicking team only needs a field goal to win, while the receiving team can’t end the game with a field goal.
The last advantage I’ll mention is that the team kicking off, if the stop their opponent from scoring a touchdown, knows what they need to do. They number of fourth down failures shows how often a team had gone for it on fourth down. They have done so because the receiving team has kicked a field goal and they know they need to score. If they aren’t in field goal range, they know they have to go for it.
While these advantages don’t outweigh the advantage of receiving the kickoff, they do counter them to the point where kicking off isn’t the huge disadvantage that some people think it is. In fact, there are likely times where the advantageous choice would be to choose which end zone to defend, rather than kicking the ball, usually in bad weather situations. If it is harder to move the ball on offense, it would be worth the risk of the other team scoring, for the likely better field position, particularly if it means kicking with or against the wind.
NFL Plays Vs FBS Plays
The NFL states that it wants to shorten games for player safety. If so, changing to the college system would apparently do that. The current system has overtimes lasting an average of 17.36 plays per overtime game. Interestingly, since the NFL shortened overtime games to 10 minutes or less, the number of plays actually increased to 17.55. In the last 43 games involving an FBS team, the plays per overtime game have averaged 13.42, 4 less than the NFL.
As such, the NFL could have fewer plays if they changed to the college system, though that clearly is not in the works. Among other things, I suspect that the run time for multiple overtime games in college run longer than NFL overtimes. Each overtime period has one timeout per team and in between period, the coin toss options have to be repeated, and the end of field usually changes, not to mention all the extra points. Since run time will affect television, the NFL probably wouldn’t choose that, though they would never state that is the reason.
The Kansas City Proposal
The most common criticism of the NFL overtime is that it’s possible for one team to never possess the ball. As such, the commonly suggested solution is that even if the first team scores a touchdown, give the second team a chance to match. This is a simple and seemingly fair solution, in fact, one that seemed good to me, until I saw these numbers. Unfortunately, though being “fair” in that it gives both teams the ball, it would might give the coin toss winner a bigger advantage, which is the stated reason that most of those people claim is the reason why they want change.
The advantages each team has in the current system are as follows:
Receiving team:
Can end the game with a touchdown without the other team possessing.
First crack at any score after both teams have possessed the ball.
If the other team turns the ball over, might get great field position.
Kicking team:
Gets better field position on average.
Could get great field position on turnover.
Selects end of field.
Knows what they need to score to continue game.
Need only field goal after a stop.
Take away the advantage of ending the game with a touchdown for the receiving team, you remove almost the only advantage the receiving team would get. The kicking team already, on average, starts with better field position, and has a change at great field position with a turnover, but would also have the advantage of knowing what they need to score on their drive. It’s this latter aspect that gives the defense last team an advantage in the college overtime. Given that you add to the advantage of kicking, you might never see a coach elect to receive an overtime kick again. Let’s try to see how much of an impact this would make.
If we assume the results we have so far reflect reality (a large assumption, but it’s all we got), under the current system, teams receiving the kickoff have gone 61-52-7 for a winning percentage of 53.75%. When failing to score a touchdown they have gone 37-52-7 for a winning percentage of 42.19%. It follows if the kicking team gets a possession if they allow a touchdown, the percentage would be between those two marks, the question being how many of those 24 games would the kicking team manage to win after allowing a touchdown. We know that teams trying to score on the first possession have scored touchdowns in 20% of their drives, which is a good place to start. Those teams also score a field goal on 18.33% of their drives, which indicates they were nearing the goal when they were stopped by a fourth down. It follows that if that a team would not kick a field goal if they needed a touchdown, nor would they punt, so that’s it’s going to be higher than that 20%. Teams responding to a field goal have 11 of the 22 times that it has happened. Likely the number of games that a team responding to a touchdown would win would be somewhere between 5 and 10.
So, taking 5 wins away from the 61-52-7 would result in a 56-57-7 record. Taking 10 away would result in a 51-62-7 record. Likely a worse case would give the kicking team a 45.42% winning percentage. Not far off the advantage the receiving team has now, and that’s worse case. And since the likely choice would be to kick, that means the receiving team would also get to choose the end to defense. This is probably not a bad option, considering it would give both teams a chance to have the ball, which is the most common complaint. It would not solve the “coin toss deciding the game” factor though in that it would still be an advantage to win the toss.
The most common other options people give for changing to the NFL system is to use the college system, or a derivative of it. I can only fall back on the data I’ve given for the college system and that it would give the NFL what it claims to want in fewer plays, though people asking for the starting position to be moved back would change that. There seems to be little change that the NFL would change to the college system for the reasons many others have given.
College Options
Currently, the NCAA is looking at a proposal that would change the overtime rules if a game goes into a 5th overtime. Instead of continuing as they had in the first 4 overtimes, the game would go into alternating 2 point conversions, ending when one team scores and the other doesn’t.
It seems likely to me that this is going to pass. Just over 1 in 100 overtime games get to the 5th overtime. This would happen very rarely and it would solve the stated problem for the NCAA. It’s a shame to see any change, but under the banner of “player safety”, this does make sense. The only question I have is would they count as separate overtime periods in the record book. It would be a shame to see the NCAA record 8 overtime game get dethroned by this change.
Another (fan) suggestion that would seem to curb the coin toss advantage is to eliminate all kicking from the overtime periods. Either you score a touchdown, or fail on fourth down. Either you make a 2 point conversion, or you fail in the attempt. Since both teams are doing their best to put the ball in the end zone, the advantage of choosing to kick or not is gone. This would cause it to lose some of its charm, though, in my opinion.
The last (fan) proposal I’ll mention is the one to have each team go for 2 every time they score a touchdown, not just past the 2nd overtime. What would limit the effectiveness of this is that it only would come into play when both teams scored a touchdown. This happens barely 30% of the time. Of the 1005 periods in which teams were not required to go for 2, only 305 of them had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 305, 47 were decided when one of the teams went for 2 and 30 were decided when one team made the extra point kick and the other missed it. So of the 305 games where it would have factored, 77 were already decided by current rules.
Of the 143 periods in which teams were required to go for 2, 43 had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 43 games, 19 were decided when one team made the 2 point conversion when the other failed, which is 44.19%. If we had a big enough sample, you’d figure that 50% of those games would likely be decided using this method, so I’ll assume that. On a side note, both the 5th and 6th periods have never had a winner decide by this method.
Okay, if you have 305 period where this would applied and assume that 50% were decide by a 2 point system, that means that 152.5 of those periods would have decided that game. Given that 77 were already decided, you’d have a net increase of 75.5 games that this method would decide, or 7.51% of the periods. It seems a rather small percentage of games would be affected by this rule change, though if a 7 overtime game is decided in the first, you could save 6 periods, so it’s difficult to determine how many periods would be saved. It seems a rather large change to make for such a small impact, but that’s my opinion.
Conclusion
Neither the NFL nor the NCAA seems likely to move toward the other’s overtime system, but both are looking at possible changes. Both the NFL and college give an advantage to the coin toss winner, but the winning percentage is less than 55% for both systems neither system seems to give a much larger advantage than the other (despite what is often said).
For the NFL, it seems to make sense to have both teams a chance to possess the ball, even if the first team scores a touchdown. A large number of fans seem to want it and though it flips the odds to favor the kicking team, it the coin toss advantage would likely stay the same. The obvious drawback to this is that the number of plays in the overtime would increase, which is opposite of the NFL’s stated goals.
For the NCAA, the more commonly discussed changes would likely not make much of an impact. The proposed rule change of doing a 2 point conversion shoot out after 4 overtime games would only effect about 1% of the total games. This would eliminate the 7 overtime marathons that occasionally come up, while having no change at all on most of the games.
I started this project in hopes that it would open up some discussion. I feel too often people have tried to stop any constructive conversation by claiming that one system is “more fair” than the other using incorrect coin toss statistics, or just general misunderstandings. I know it was a pointless effort, but it was fun doing it.
College Football Trivia 